Outcomes Prediction in Critically Ill Elderly Patients Using MPM0-III and SAPS 3 Scores

El-Yaski, Shehab Ahmed; Adel, Manar Mosatafa; Adel, Ahmed; Yousif, Heba

doi:10.21608/ejgg.2024.253153.1102

Outcomes Prediction in Critically Ill Elderly Patients Using MPM0-III and SAPS 3 Scores

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Geriatrics and Gerontology department, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo , Egypt

10.21608/ejgg.2024.253153.1102

Abstract

Background:
As the global population ages, the demand for accurate prognostic tools for this vulnerable demographic has intensified.
Objective:
Evaluating the prognostic ability of the Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0-III) and Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS 3) scoring systems in severely ill elderly patients admitted to Ain Shams University Hospitals' Geriatrics ICU.
Methods:
A 6-month prospective observational cohort research included 106 old patients of both sexes admitted to geriatric ICU at Ahmed Shawki Hospital, Ain Shams University Hospitals. On admission and during the first 72 hours of hospital stay, demographic data, history and physical examination including vital data, assessment of conscious level, the worst parameters of clinical and laboratory data required for determining the severity of illness and survival status (death or discharge from the ICU) were recorded. On admission, the Mortality Probability Model Score was determined using RNSH-ICU calculators at 24, 48, and 72 hours, and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 was calculated using MDCalc.
Results: Comparison between survivors and non-survivors as regards MPM0-III and SAPS 3 predictive mortality rates revealed highly statistically significant increase in the group of non-survivors (P<0.001). MPM24 has the best calibration while MPM72 showed the best AUC. Logistic regression analysis was done to estimate odds of mortality using the different scores, they were highly significant for all (P<0.001).
Conclusion: With an acceptable degree of discrimination and calibration, the two severity of illness scoring systems (SAPS 3-III and MPM0-III) performed well and can be used to predict death in elderly critically ill patients.

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